ShopTRAINING/server/predictors/model_predictor.py

"""
药店销售预测系统 - 模型预测函数
"""

import os
import torch
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
import sklearn.preprocessing._data  # 添加这一行以支持MinMaxScaler的反序列化

from models.transformer_model import TimeSeriesTransformer
from models.slstm_model import sLSTM as ScalarLSTM
from models.mlstm_model import MLSTMTransformer as MatrixLSTM
from models.kan_model import KANForecaster
from models.tcn_model import TCNForecaster
from models.optimized_kan_forecaster import OptimizedKANForecaster

from analysis.trend_analysis import analyze_prediction_result
from utils.visualization import plot_prediction_results
from utils.multi_store_data_utils import get_store_product_sales_data, aggregate_multi_store_data
from core.config import DEVICE

def load_model_and_predict(model_version_path: str, future_days=7, start_date=None, analyze_result=False):
    """
    从指定的版本目录加载模型并进行预测。

    参数:
    model_version_path: 模型版本目录的绝对路径。
    future_days: 预测未来天数。
    start_date: 预测起始日期，如果为None则使用最后一个已知日期。
    analyze_result: 是否分析预测结果。
    
    返回:
    预测结果和分析（如果analyze_result为True）
    """
    try:
        # 从路径中解析元数据
        metadata_path = os.path.join(model_version_path, 'metadata.json')
        if not os.path.exists(metadata_path):
            raise FileNotFoundError(f"在路径 {model_version_path} 中未找到 metadata.json")
        
        with open(metadata_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
            metadata = json.load(f)
        
        product_id = metadata.get('product_id')
        model_type = metadata.get('model_type')
        store_id = metadata.get('store_id')
        training_mode = metadata.get('training_mode')
        aggregation_method = metadata.get('aggregation_method')

        model_path = os.path.join(model_version_path, 'model.pth')
        print(f"尝试加载模型文件: {model_path}")
        
        if not os.path.exists(model_path):
            print(f"模型文件 {model_path} 不存在")
            return None
        
        # 加载销售数据（支持多店铺）
        try:
            if store_id:
                # 加载特定店铺的数据
                product_df = get_store_product_sales_data(
                    store_id, 
                    product_id,
                    'pharmacy_sales_multi_store.csv'
                )
                store_name = product_df['store_name'].iloc[0] if 'store_name' in product_df.columns else f"店铺{store_id}"
                prediction_scope = f"店铺 '{store_name}' ({store_id})"
            else:
                # 聚合所有店铺的数据进行预测
                product_df = aggregate_multi_store_data(
                    product_id,
                    aggregation_method='sum',
                    file_path='pharmacy_sales_multi_store.csv'
                )
                prediction_scope = "全部店铺（聚合数据）"
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"多店铺数据加载失败，尝试使用原始数据格式: {e}")
            # 后向兼容：尝试加载原始数据格式
            try:
                df = pd.read_excel('pharmacy_sales.xlsx')
                product_df = df[df['product_id'] == product_id].sort_values('date')
                if store_id:
                    print(f"警告：原始数据不支持店铺过滤，将使用所有数据预测")
                prediction_scope = "默认数据"
            except Exception as e2:
                print(f"加载产品数据失败: {str(e2)}")
                return None
        
        if product_df.empty:
            print(f"产品 {product_id} 没有销售数据")
            return None
            
        product_name = product_df['product_name'].iloc[0]
        print(f"使用 {model_type} 模型预测产品 '{product_name}' (ID: {product_id}) 的未来 {future_days} 天销量")
        print(f"预测范围: {prediction_scope}")
        
        # 添加安全的全局变量以支持MinMaxScaler的反序列化
        try:
            torch.serialization.add_safe_globals([sklearn.preprocessing._data.MinMaxScaler])
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"添加安全全局变量失败，但这可能不影响模型加载: {str(e)}")
        
        # 加载模型和配置
        try:
            # 首先尝试使用weights_only=False加载
            try:
                print("尝试使用 weights_only=False 加载模型")
                checkpoint = torch.load(model_path, map_location=DEVICE, weights_only=False)
            except Exception as e:
                print(f"使用weights_only=False加载失败: {str(e)}")
                print("尝试使用默认参数加载模型")
                checkpoint = torch.load(model_path, map_location=DEVICE)
                
            print(f"模型加载成功，检查checkpoint类型: {type(checkpoint)}")
            if isinstance(checkpoint, dict):
                print(f"checkpoint包含的键: {list(checkpoint.keys())}")
            else:
                print(f"checkpoint不是字典类型，而是: {type(checkpoint)}")
                return None
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"加载模型失败: {str(e)}")
            return None
        
        # 检查并获取配置
        if 'config' not in checkpoint:
            print("模型文件中没有配置信息")
            return None
            
        config = checkpoint['config']
        print(f"模型配置: {config}")
        
        # 检查并获取缩放器
        if 'scaler_X' not in checkpoint or 'scaler_y' not in checkpoint:
            print("模型文件中没有缩放器信息")
            return None
            
        scaler_X = checkpoint['scaler_X']
        scaler_y = checkpoint['scaler_y']
        
        # 创建模型实例
        try:
            if model_type == 'transformer':
                model = TimeSeriesTransformer(
                    num_features=config['input_dim'],
                    d_model=config['hidden_size'],
                    nhead=config['num_heads'],
                    num_encoder_layers=config['num_layers'],
                    dim_feedforward=config['hidden_size'] * 2,
                    dropout=config['dropout'],
                    output_sequence_length=config['output_dim'],
                    seq_length=config['sequence_length'],
                    batch_size=32
                ).to(DEVICE)
            elif model_type == 'slstm':
                model = ScalarLSTM(
                    input_dim=config['input_dim'],
                    hidden_dim=config['hidden_size'],
                    output_dim=config['output_dim'],
                    num_layers=config['num_layers'],
                    dropout=config['dropout']
                ).to(DEVICE)
            elif model_type == 'mlstm':
                # 获取配置参数，如果不存在则使用默认值
                embed_dim = config.get('embed_dim', 32)
                dense_dim = config.get('dense_dim', 32)
                num_heads = config.get('num_heads', 4)
                num_blocks = config.get('num_blocks', 3)
                
                model = MatrixLSTM(
                    num_features=config['input_dim'],
                    hidden_size=config['hidden_size'],
                    mlstm_layers=config['num_layers'],
                    embed_dim=embed_dim,
                    dense_dim=dense_dim,
                    num_heads=num_heads,
                    dropout_rate=config['dropout'],
                    num_blocks=num_blocks,
                    output_sequence_length=config['output_dim']
                ).to(DEVICE)
            elif model_type == 'kan':
                model = KANForecaster(
                    input_features=config['input_dim'],
                    hidden_sizes=[config['hidden_size'], config['hidden_size']*2, config['hidden_size']],
                    output_sequence_length=config['output_dim']
                ).to(DEVICE)
            elif model_type == 'optimized_kan':
                model = OptimizedKANForecaster(
                    input_features=config['input_dim'],
                    hidden_sizes=[config['hidden_size'], config['hidden_size']*2, config['hidden_size']],
                    output_sequence_length=config['output_dim']
                ).to(DEVICE)
            elif model_type == 'tcn':
                model = TCNForecaster(
                    num_features=config['input_dim'],
                    output_sequence_length=config['output_dim'],
                    num_channels=[config['hidden_size']] * config['num_layers'],
                    kernel_size=3,
                    dropout=config['dropout']
                ).to(DEVICE)
            else:
                print(f"不支持的模型类型: {model_type}")
                return None
                
            print(f"模型实例创建成功: {type(model)}")
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"创建模型实例失败: {str(e)}")
            return None
        
        # 加载模型参数
        try:
            model.load_state_dict(checkpoint['model_state_dict'])
            model.eval()
            print("模型参数加载成功")
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"加载模型参数失败: {str(e)}")
            return None
        
        # 准备输入数据
        try:
            features = ['sales', 'price', 'weekday', 'month', 'is_holiday', 'is_weekend', 'is_promotion', 'temperature']
            sequence_length = config['sequence_length']
            
            # 获取最近的sequence_length天数据作为输入
            recent_data = product_df.iloc[-sequence_length:].copy()
            
            # 如果指定了起始日期，则使用该日期之后的数据
            if start_date:
                if isinstance(start_date, str):
                    start_date = datetime.strptime(start_date, '%Y-%m-%d')
                recent_data = product_df[product_df['date'] >= start_date].iloc[:sequence_length].copy()
                if len(recent_data) < sequence_length:
                    print(f"警告: 从指定日期 {start_date} 开始的数据少于所需的 {sequence_length} 天")
                    # 补充数据
                    missing_days = sequence_length - len(recent_data)
                    additional_data = product_df[product_df['date'] < start_date].iloc[-missing_days:].copy()
                    recent_data = pd.concat([additional_data, recent_data]).reset_index(drop=True)
            
            print(f"输入数据准备完成，形状: {recent_data.shape}")
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"准备输入数据失败: {str(e)}")
            return None
        
        # 归一化输入数据
        try:
            X = recent_data[features].values
            X_scaled = scaler_X.transform(X)
            
            # 转换为模型输入格式
            X_input = torch.tensor(X_scaled.reshape(1, sequence_length, -1), dtype=torch.float32).to(DEVICE)
            print(f"输入张量准备完成，形状: {X_input.shape}")
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"归一化输入数据失败: {str(e)}")
            return None
        
        # 预测
        try:
            with torch.no_grad():
                y_pred_scaled = model(X_input).cpu().numpy()
                print(f"原始预测输出形状: {y_pred_scaled.shape}")
            
            # 处理TCN、Transformer、mLSTM和KAN模型的输出，确保形状正确
            if model_type in ['tcn', 'transformer', 'mlstm', 'kan', 'optimized_kan'] and len(y_pred_scaled.shape) == 3:
                y_pred_scaled = y_pred_scaled.squeeze(-1)
                print(f"处理后的预测输出形状: {y_pred_scaled.shape}")
            
            # 反归一化预测结果
            y_pred = scaler_y.inverse_transform(y_pred_scaled.reshape(-1, 1)).flatten()
            print(f"反归一化后的预测结果: {y_pred}")
            
            # 生成预测日期
            last_date = recent_data['date'].iloc[-1]
            pred_dates = [(last_date + timedelta(days=i+1)) for i in range(len(y_pred))]
            print(f"预测日期: {pred_dates}")
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"执行预测失败: {str(e)}")
            return None
        
        # 创建预测结果DataFrame
        try:
            predictions_df = pd.DataFrame({
                'date': pred_dates,
                'sales': y_pred  # 使用sales字段名而不是predicted_sales，以便与历史数据兼容
            })
            print(f"预测结果DataFrame创建成功，形状: {predictions_df.shape}")
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"创建预测结果DataFrame失败: {str(e)}")
            return None
        
        # 绘制预测结果
        try:
            plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
            plt.plot(product_df['date'], product_df['sales'], 'b-', label='历史销量')
            plt.plot(predictions_df['date'], predictions_df['sales'], 'r--', label='预测销量')
            plt.title(f'{product_name} - {model_type}模型销量预测')
            plt.xlabel('日期')
            plt.ylabel('销量')
            plt.legend()
            plt.grid(True)
            plt.xticks(rotation=45)
            plt.tight_layout()
            
            # 保存图像
            plt.savefig(f'{product_id}_{model_type}_prediction.png')
            plt.close()
            
            print(f"预测结果已保存到 {product_id}_{model_type}_prediction.png")
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"绘制预测结果图表失败: {str(e)}")
            # 这个错误不影响主要功能，继续执行
        
        # 分析预测结果
        analysis = None
        if analyze_result:
            try:
                analysis = analyze_prediction_result(product_id, model_type, y_pred, X)
                print("\n预测结果分析:")
                if analysis and 'explanation' in analysis:
                    print(analysis['explanation'])
                else:
                    print("分析结果不包含explanation字段")
            except Exception as e:
                print(f"分析预测结果失败: {str(e)}")
                # 分析失败不影响主要功能，继续执行
        
        return {
            'product_id': product_id,
            'product_name': product_name,
            'model_type': model_type,
            'predictions': predictions_df,
            'analysis': analysis
        }
    except Exception as e:
        print(f"预测过程中出现未捕获的异常: {str(e)}")
        import traceback
        traceback.print_exc()
        return None